Can November Soybeans Break Contract Highs?
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Can November Soybeans Challenge Contract Highs?
The recent rally in November soybean futures has sparked interest among traders. With a contract high of $12.41 per bushel set back in January 2023, some wonder if this year will be the one it breaks through. While market outcomes are inherently uncertain, several factors suggest continued gains are possible.
Strong demand from the renewable diesel sector is driving soybean prices higher. According to the USDA’s May WASDE report, U.S. soybean crush is projected to reach a record 2.75 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. This surge in domestic demand has created a floor beneath the market, providing critical support.
Renewable diesel production is on the rise due to growing government regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions. As governments increasingly favor biodiesel over traditional fossil fuels, soybean-based diesel has become more attractive. This shift has created a perfect storm for soybean prices, with domestic demand cushioning against seasonal fluctuations.
The technical structure of November Soybeans also supports continued gains. The contract’s weekly chart shows an uptrend, with higher lows and buying on breaks indicating commercial and speculative participants are defending support levels.
Research from the Moore Research Center, Inc., reveals a pattern that has been repeating itself over 15 years: November soybean futures have closed higher on June 12 than May 31 for 80% of the time. While not foolproof, this “seasonal buying” pattern has produced impressive hypothetical returns, with an average net profit of almost $1,040 per contract.
With strong crush demand, improving technical structure, and supportive seasonal patterns all aligning, November soybeans are a market worth paying attention to. Traders can make more informed decisions by understanding these underlying trends and patterns.
Weather and export developments will likely impact soybean prices in the coming weeks. However, with its unique combination of demand, technicals, and seasonality, this market is one that traders and hedgers will want to keep firmly on their radar as we move forward into the summer months. History has a way of repeating itself; only time will tell if the soybean market continues to defy expectations and push through new highs.
Reader Views
- ADAnalyst D. Park · policy analyst
While the technical and fundamental factors bode well for November soybeans, traders shouldn't get ahead of themselves with a contract high breakout. History has shown that even when seasonal patterns favor buying, a significant price gap can still materialize between peak demand months and the actual delivery period. With crush demand peaking in 2025/26, supply chain logistics may become increasingly strained, limiting the market's ability to break through established resistance levels. A more nuanced view would consider these potential headwinds when evaluating the likelihood of a contract high breakout.
- RJReporter J. Avery · staff reporter
While strong demand and technical support are certainly contributing factors to soybean price growth, it's essential to remember that market outcomes are inherently uncertain. One potential wild card to consider is the impact of drought-prone regions in South America, which could disrupt global supplies and put downward pressure on prices. As traders, we need to remain vigilant for signs of weather-related stress on key production areas.
- EKEditor K. Wells · editor
While the technicals and seasonal patterns are certainly compelling, we can't ignore the looming threat of global production estimates. The USDA's May WASDE report mentioned a slight increase in global soybean production for 2025/26, which could put downward pressure on prices if realized. It's essential to monitor crop development and weather patterns in major producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, as even a minor adjustment to production estimates can impact market direction.