Trump-Xi Summit: A Diplomatic Dance in Empty Gestures

The recent summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been hailed as a diplomatic victory by both sides. However, beneath the surface of flattery and strategic choreography lies a more nuanced reality.

Xi Jinping’s emphasis on history and stability was an attempt to appeal to Trump’s sense of grandeur. This approach revealed a fundamental disconnect between the two leaders. While Xi sees China as a peer competitor capable of shaping the global order alongside the US, Trump views the relationship through the lens of personal gain and immediate benefits.

The agreement on a new strategic framework for China-US ties is being touted by Beijing as a major breakthrough, but its practical implications are unclear. This framework has its roots in Cold War-era diplomacy, where the threat of mutual assured destruction kept rival powers in check. Xi’s post-Cold War version of this concept reinforces China’s status as a rising power seeking parity with the US.

In contrast, Trump can point to limited trade deals and Beijing’s offer to help with the Iran crisis, but these concessions come at a cost. The lack of a visible shift in Washington’s position on Taiwan is a significant omission, and the trade agreements reached so far are modest compared to what had been hoped for.

Beyond the immediate optics lies a more profound issue: the fact that this summit was always going to be about appearances rather than substance. As Professor Yang Dali noted, stability itself is a gain, but it’s hard to define exactly what that means in practice. The absence of concrete deliverables from this meeting underscores the complexity of the structural rivalry between the US and China.

The summit was a manifestation of the Thucydides Trap, where an emerging power (China) challenges the incumbent (US), leading to tensions and conflict. Xi Jinping’s invocation of this concept during his visit to the Temple of Heaven was a nod to the historical precedent, but it also underscores the difficulty of navigating this complex relationship.

The fact that there were few concrete deliverables from this summit reflects the reality of a rivalry that cuts across multiple domains: technology, trade, and security. It’s unrealistic to expect a grand bargain in one hastily arranged visit, especially when both sides are trying to balance competing domestic and international pressures.

In the end, the Trump-Xi summit was about flattery on both sides, with each leader seeking to assure their domestic audience that they had something to show for it. While Xi Jinping’s welcome ceremony with goose-stepping honor guards and military pageantry may have been impressive, it was also a calculated move to appeal to Trump’s sense of grandeur.

The rivalry between the US and China is not about winning or losing; it’s about navigating a complex web of interests, identities, and historical precedents. As we look ahead to future encounters between Trump and Xi, one thing is clear: this is a long-term game that will require patience, persistence, and a willingness to engage in the empty gestures that come with high-stakes diplomacy.